FIRST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

Ghent, Belgium
30 June - 2 July 1999

ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Gert de Cooman

Lower Desirability Functions: A Convenient Imprecise Hierarchical Uncertainty Model

Abstract

I introduce and study a fairly general imprecise second-order uncertainty model, in terms of lower desirability. A modeller's lower desirability for a gamble is defined as her lower probability for the event that a given subject will find the gamble (at least marginally) desirable. For lower desirability assessments, rationality criteria are introduced that go back to the criteria of avoiding sure loss and coherence in the theory of (first-order) imprecise probabilities. I also introduce a notion of natural extension that allows the least committal coherent extension of lower desirability assessments to larger domains, as well as to a first-order model, which can be used in statistical reasoning and decision making. The main result of the paper is what I call {\em Precision--Imprecision Equivalence\/}: as far as certain behavioural implications of this model are concerned, it does not matter whether the subject's underlying first-order model is assumed to be precise or imprecise.

Keywords. Hierarchical uncertainty model, coherence, natural extension, imprecision

The paper is available in the following formats and sites:

Authors addresses:

Universiteit Gent
Onderzoeksgroep SYSTeMS
Technologiepark -- Zwijnaarde 9
9052 Zwijnaarde
Belgium

E-mail addresses:

Gert de Cooman gert.decooman@rug.ac.be

Related Web Sites

Gert de Cooman


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