FIRST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

Ghent, Belgium
30 June - 2 July 1999

ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Robert F. Nau

The Aggregation of Imprecise Probabilities

Abstract

Two methods are presented for the aggregation of imprecise probabilities elicited from a group of experts in terms of betting rates. In the first method, the experts bet with a common opponent subject to limits on their personal betting stakes, and their individual and aggregate beliefs are represented by confidence-weighted lower and upper probabilities. In the second method, the experts bet directly with each other as a means of reconciling incoherence, and their beliefs are represented by lower and upper risk neutral probabilities-i.e., products of probabilities and relative marginal utilities for money.

Keywords. lower and upper probabilities, confidence-weighted probabilities, expert resolution, consensus, coherence, arbitrage

The paper is available in the following formats and sites:

Authors addresses:

Fuqua School of Business
Duke University
Durham, NC 27708-0120
USA


E-mail addresses:

Robert F. Nau robert.nau@duke.edu

Related Web Sites

Robert Nau's home page


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