FIRST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

Ghent, Belgium
30 June - 2 July 1999

ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Michèle Cohen, Itzack Gilboa, Jean-Yves Jaffray, and David Schmeidler

An Experimental Study of Updating Ambiguous Beliefs

Abstract

Ambiguous beliefs`` are beliefs which are inconsistent with a unique, additive prior. The problem of their update in face of new information has been dealt with in the theoretical literature, and received several contradictory answers. In particular, the ``maximum likelihood update`` and the ``full Bayesian update`` have been axiomatized. This experimental study attempts to test the descriptive validity of these two theories by using the Ellsberg experiment framework.

Keywords. Decision Making, Uncertainty, Capacities, Updating, Conditioning rules.

The paper is available in the following formats and sites:

Authors addresses:

Michele Cohen

EUREQua, Université de Paris I, 106-112, Bld de l'Hopital, 75013, Paris, France

Itzack Gilboa

Tel Aviv University and Boston University,

Jean-Yves Jaffray

LIP6, Universit de Paris VI, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252, Paris Cedex 05, France.

D. Schmeidler

Department of Economics and Statistics, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel and Department of Economics, Ohio State University.

E-mail addresses:

Michèle Cohen cohenmd@univ-paris1.fr
Itzack Gilboa gilboa@econ.tau.ac.il
Jean-Yves Jaffray Jean-Yves.Jaffray@lip6.fr
David Schmeidler schmeid@post.tau.ac.il


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