FIRST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

Ghent, Belgium
30 June - 2 July 1999

ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Igor Kozine

Imprecise Probabilities Relating to Prior Reliability Assessments

Abstract

The paper summarizes the author's experience in dealing with the Dempster-Shafer theory relating to reliability assessments and demonstrates how to make components and systems reliability assessments based on the theory of coherent imprecise previsions. The procedure of prior imprecise probability elicitation of components is based on analogical reasoning, and two cases of precise and imprecise probabilities of prototypes are considered. Cases of combining different reliability judgements on the same component are analyzed. The formulae obtained for systems reliability assessments allow getting the lower and upper probabilities without the presumption of a conditional independence.

Keywords. imprecise probabilities, reliability assessments, belief functions, analogy

The paper is available in the following formats and sites:

Authors addresses:

24 Chestnut Street
Binghamton, NY
13905, USA

E-mail addresses:

Igor Kozine ikozine@binghamton.edu


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