FIRST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

Ghent, Belgium
30 June - 2 July 1999

ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Michael Smithson, Thomas Bartos, and KazuhisaTakemura

Human Judgment under Sample Space Ignorance

Abstract

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample space ignorance. The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley [9, 10]. The five studies reported here investigate four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

Keywords. Human judgment, uncertainty, ambiguity, vagueness, probability.

The paper is available in the following formats and sites:

Authors addresses:

Michael Smithson and Thomas Bartos

Division of Psychology, Australian National University

Kazuhisa Takemura

Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences,
University of Tsukuba

E-mail addresses:

Michael Smithson Michael.Smithson@anu.edu.au
Thomas Bartos Thomas.Bartos@anu.edu.au
KazuhisaTakemura takemura@shako.sk.tsukuba.ac.jp


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